SASKATOON — Prospects for a good pulse harvest in India could limit Canada’s pea and lentil exports to that country.
Stat Publishing reports that Indian farmers sowed 23.68 million acres of chickpeas, a five per cent increase over last year.
Why it Matters: India is a major buyer of Canadian peas and lentils.
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Average yields would see production advance to 11.4 million tonnes from 11.11 million last year.
“Output at that level would be expected to impinge on demand for both yellow peas and chickpeas throughout 2026,” Stat editor Brian Clancey stated in a recent article.
A lot will depend on what India decides to do with the 30 per cent import tariff on peas of all origins that it implemented on Nov. 1, 2025.
India’s pea imports were already lacklustre before the tariff.
“Imports during 2025 are down sharply from those recorded in 2024,” said Clancey.
“As of November, India had imported 1.14 million tonnes from all origins, compared to 2.74 in the same 11-month period in 2024.”
Canada accounted for 763,200 tonnes of the 2025 shipments and 1.33 million tonnes of the 2024 imports.
Stat is forecasting India will harvest 1.99 million tonnes of lentils, up from 1.65 million tonnes last year and the previous five-year average of 1.55 million tonnes.
That is based on record seeded acreage of the crop and average yields.
Imports for 2026 are forecast at one million tonnes, down only slightly from the estimated 1.08 million for 2025.
“As of November, imports during the 2025 calendar year total 935,400 tonnes, up from 919,600 during the same 11 month period in 2024,” said Clancey.
Canada was the leading supplier in 2025, accounting for 496,600 tonnes, but came in second behind Australia in 2024 with 344,800 tonnes.
India has a 10 per cent import tariff on lentils.
Western Producer markets desk analyst Bruce Burnett said growing conditions have been good for India’s rabi crop.
“They have escaped the perils of excess heat through the critical periods,” he said.
“That has been good for pulses.”
The rabi crop is harvested in the March-April period. If the crop is as big as anticipated, that will put downward pressure on domestic prices for chickpeas and lentils.
“Then the government will respond by making sure that there is not a lot of import pressure,” said Burnett.
“It doesn’t mean they won’t import, but they’ll be importing a little bit later and probably not as much because the domestic production is good.”
Agriculture Canada is forecasting Canadian growers will plant 2.96 million acres of peas in 2026, a 15 per cent drop from last year because of lower returns relative to other crops and India’s ongoing import tariffs.
It is forecasting 3.95 million acres of lentils, a 9.7 per cent decline.
Burnett thinks those numbers sound about right. Growers planted a lot of pulses last year and are likely pulling back in 2026.
He noted that China is dropping its 100 per cent anti-discrimination tariff on Canadian peas effective March 1, 2026. However, that is a temporary measure in place until the end of the calendar year unless something changes.
